| Discussion and Conclusion |
| Our Research
|
The Accuracy of Climate
Data in Predicting Climate Change DISCUSSION AND
CONCLUSION: Using one case study with three
different weather center's analysis maps, our data indicated that the three
weather centers varied in this analysis. In theory, if the computer models
accurately depicted the climate of the atmosphere for this case, there should have been no
error and all three centers should have matched each other.
The three weather centers, NCEP (National Centers for Environmental
Prediction), ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast), and
NASA’s DAO (Data Assimilation Office), varied in percent error from
–7.0% to –20.8%. By looking at the Weather Center Flight Data Comparison
chart, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) had
the lowest percent error on path velocity. In other words, ECMWF had the
most accurate depiction of the natural climate. It is important to note that
the ECMWF is a cooperative project of a number of European countries and
concentrates its forecasts on the longer term (3 to 10 days). This weather center has the
luxury of working slower to provide more accurate medium range weather
forecasts. This method of obtaining data would not be useful if we needed
data immediately or for the short term (0 to 3 days). Contrary to ECMWF, National Centers
for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) had the highest percent error on path
velocity with -20.8%
(Woodrow Wilson Foundation) and –19.0% (SUNY). With regard to whether or
not we can accurately predict the effects of climate change using computer
models, the test results (one case only!) suggest that caution must be
exercised in stating the effects of climate change if the weather stations themselves can’t
agree with each other. Detection of climate change must also allow for
uncertainty introduced by the different weather centers. Predicting climate change is by no means a simple
calculation of one or two variables. There are six equations for Atmospheric
Prediction, also known as the Navier-Stokes Equation. In our experiment, we
were merely looking at one small aspect (strength of wind speed) of this
very complex study of the atmosphere and climate. Additional experiments
should be performed in order to conclusively demonstrate the accuracy or
inaccuracy of climate data in depicting the natural (unperturbed) climate. In addition, cases
should be chosen randomly in order to eliminate any biases.
|
|
|
|
|
|