• Introduction
• Methods and Data
• Discussion and Conclusion

The Accuracy of Climate Data in Predicting Climate Change  

METHODS AND DATA:  

Under the direct supervision of Dr. Joel Tenenbaum of SUNY Purchase and in association with the Woodrow Wilson National Fellowship Foundation, we focused on one flight case on January 5, 2000 from London, England to Vancouver, British Columbia.  Using the flight recorder data, through the assistance of Dr. Tenenbaum, we were able to obtain the maximum jet stream velocity as observed by the aircraft. We then compared the flight recorder data with three different weather centers’ analyses (the initial conditions used to start the forecast). The three weather centers chosen were NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction), ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast), and NASA’s DAO (Data Assimilation Office).  The percent error between the computer model analysis of the jet stream’s velocity and the velocity of which was actually recorded was calculated using an Excel Interpolation Spreadsheet.

British Airways Flight Recorder Data:

0000105   16:55   350   LHR   YVR   00:43:41   55.3   -118.9   72.0   318  

This flight departed from London Heathrow Airport on January 5, 2000 at 4:55PM (Greenwich time, also known as UTC) and en route to Vancouver, British Columbia and cruised at flight level 350 (35,000 ft).  At 12:43:41AM (Greenwich time), the aircraft recorded a maximum wind speed of 72.0 m/sec at a latitude of 55.3 (North) degrees and a longitude of –118.9 (West) degrees. For a detailed description of how to read the flight recorder data, please refer to the following website from the Woodrow Wilson Institute team report from 2000.

Maps from the 3 Weather Centers

Notice that the three maps are different.  The variety of resolutions and formats among the three centers suggests that a graphical comparison is faster and may be as accurate as arbitrary interpolations from the underlying gridded data. Notice that time interpolations are normally needed (see ECMWF maps), since the aircraft does not normally cross the jet stream maximum exactly at 00 or 12 Greenwich time.

NCEP map

ECMWF map

DAO map

For information on how to use weather center maps with Adobe Illustrator, contact Dr. Joel Tenenbaum at joel@jet.purchase.edu. 

Excel Spreadsheets:  

NCEP Spreadsheet

ECMWFSpreadsheet

DAO Spreadsheet

Data and Graph:  

For information on how to enter data into Excel and to download the Excel Interpolation Spreadsheet, please refer to the website from last year's group.