LAB

Decision-Making For Endangered Species Conservation In the Face of Multiple Uncertain Interacting Processes.

INTRODUCTION

In this lab we describe an objective approach to managing a threatened species based on a sequence of steps that are integrated using Population Viability Analysis (PVA). PVA is a process in which the likelihood that a population will become extinct is assessed, within a specified time and under particular circumstances.  Different management alternatives are compared to a baseline scenario. This process involves the use of mathematical models that are explored using computer simulation.

The emphasis of this lab is on the practical problems facing ecologists, conservation biologists and natural resource managers. In addition, it incorporates variability into simple models of population dynamics. The use of the RAMAS EcoLab 2.0 software, instead of analytical models, allowed us to consolidate important concepts in a way that is simple to understand. It guided us step-by-step through a graduated series of explanations, examples and exercises designed to show us how models of population growth and regulation are used in ecology. The use of real examples and field data of well-known endangered species raised our interest and showed us the relevance of the demographic models.

OBJECTIVES

1. To illustrate the management of an endangered species population using computer simulations and the RAMAS EcoLab 2.0, software package.
2. To explore a specific technique known as Population Viability Analysis (PVA).
3. To use PVA, to attempt to answer the likelihood that the only self-sustaining population of whooping cranes will persist for a given time into the future, in the face of alternate management actions.

1. We selected the Aranas/Wood Buffalo population , because it is the only wild self-sustaining population of Whooping Cranes.
2. By collating existing information and the history of decline, we ran a simulation.  We then determined that the species was threatened.
3. As a result of this information, we chose three management options, standard deviation, initial population size and habitat change. We collected available data. The parameters were then varied incrementally from a selected minimum and maximum.
4. We analyzed the effectiveness of the three alternatives.
5. We assessed the vulnerability of the population to extinction.

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The Woodrow Wilson National Fellowship Foundation CN 5281, Princeton NJ 08543-5281 - Tel:(609)452-7007 - Fax:(609)452-0066 Technical contact: lpt@woodrow.org