What will happen to a population of whooping cranes when habitat conditions change?

Negative values for K model habitat loss and positive values for K model habitat enhancement.
Using the following parameters, the simulation was run to show results of runs using values for K of -3%,-2%,-1%,1%,2%, 3%.

PARAMETERS
    initial population
180
    growth rate
1.04
   survival rate
70%
   standard deviation
.25
density dependent
contest
    carrying capacity
180
habitat change (trend in K)
-3% through +3%

 
 
 
 
Data Table
Habitat Change
p20
p50 
p100
-3 0.551 0.906 0.998
-2 0.422 0.819 0.978
-1 0.39 0.758 0.968
+1 0.336 0.653 0.908
+2 0.31 0.628 0.915
+3 0.31 0.605 0.89

Data Graph

 

The data show that the population declines with habitat loss and increases with habitat enhancement. The decline results in a greater danger to the cranes than the enhancement helps. The implication is that a negative change is particularly harmful and that the crane population is vulnerable to even small changes.

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