ESI98 Project Plan

Project Title/theme:

Assessment of the impact of sea-level rise due to global warming on the North Coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands-particularly Roatan and Guanaja.

Faculty Mentor

Robert Ford (more info below).

Project Team

List of team members.

Skills/tools to be used:

Analysis of the literature in the library as well as on the Internet regards the potential impacts of sea-level rise on insular/coastal zones in the Caribbean. Interpretation of airphotos, topographic/nautical maps and possibly selected video data of the coastal zone in Honduras to determine what areas are most vulnerable to coastal erosion and flooding. Calculation of impacts, e.g. population affected, areas flooded, will be done using techniques such as "freeze-framing" of selected images of lowland areas, correlation with topographic maps, calculation of areas affected using simple planimetric techniques. Where possible calculation of potential vulnerable zones would be done with a GIS system or other "image analysis" technique, e.g. IDRISI or NIH Image.

Once the most "vulnerable areas" are identified we will attempt to identify some of the potential "human dimensions" e.g. who will be most impacted, what are the potential economic and social costs and what could be done to mitigate the impacts.

Proposed activities and scenario of the project:

During the first week the mentor (Robert Ford) will introduce students to the region by showing pictures, providing some background data on the physical/ecological characteristics of the region as well as introduce them to potential data sources. The team will also decide what specific question(s) or hypotheses will be explored and determine what is feasible/doable given limitations of time, equipment, etc. Team members will also review the literature as well as the Web to see what is already known about potential impacts of sea-level rise in the Caribbean. Some special "mini-workshops" will be given as needed in techniques such as Image Analysis using NIH Image or IDRISI, interpretation and analysis of aerial photos and topographic maps as well as use of other techniques by coastal geomorphologists and oceanographers for assessment of sea-level rise.

The second week will be used for actual data collection and analysis and write-up. In the third week time will be spent in discussing how this "case" can be used to teach general concepts about earth system science and global environmental change. Materials will be prepared that not only propose answers to the simple "research questions" posed, but more important, a "product" will be produced that is tied to the National Science Standards that is "transferable" to the middle and high school classroom. The "mini-project" will be published on the web and integrated into other projects being produced by other teams.

Recommended reading and research to be done prior to arrival at Rutgers:

1. Read up on what is the current knowledge on what the impact of global warming will be in humid tropical regions such as the Caribbean. A recommended "contact" person is George Maul who is a member of the ESSE consortium of universities.
2. Explore on the Web what NIH Image is and how it can/could be used to do simple image analysis.
3. Explore what NOAA and other research institutes are doing regards the Caribbean and what they have posted on the Web.
4. Find a basic textbook(s) that deal with coastal geomorphology and oceanography and review the basic physical processes that form and shape coasts, e.g. understand basic processes of wave action, longshore currents, tidal action, coastal and insular landforms, depositional and erosional processes, etc.
5. Review basic techniques of nautical chart and topographic/geologic map and airphoto interpretation.
6. Read about how GIS and other Remote Sensing techniques might be used to study coastal problems. Try to find what satellites are collecting data/ imagery that might apply to tropical coastal areas.

If you have questions, concerns or suggestions on how to better refine the questions/issues to be explored please contact me by email at: rford@igc.apc.org.

A word about the Mentor and the Place:

The mentor, Robert E. Ford, is currently in Honduras as a Fulbright Scholar with the Department of Biological Sciences at the National University. He is also working with the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change Office. During his stint in Honduras he is beginning to collect data that will be used to write proposals for a longer- term research project to assess "environmental change" on the North Coast/Bay Islands of Honduras. His goal is to use this area as a "case study" site for the study of HDGC (Human Dimensions of Global Change). Dr. Ford was born and raised in this area, which some still call The Mosquito Coast. Team efforts will help define a "real" project affecting real people and places.

A final word: Honduras is a "Third World" country where getting reliable data is difficult and costly. Team members will need to expect that much of the desired data needed will either be unavailable or too costly to get. Patience and creativity will be needed in searching for answers and data-much like what is needed to be a middle/high school teacher. Please keep expectations low and realize that I'm a learner in this process as well; I will share what I know with you but I also expect that team members will come with skills and knowledge that I can learn from-this will be a truly "colleagial/inquiry-based" project by equal partners. Thank you and I look forward to hearing from you!

Woodrow Wilson Leadership Program in Environmental Science lpt@www.woodrow.org
The Woodrow Wilson National Fellowship Foundation webmaster@woodrow.org
CN 5281, Princeton NJ 08543-5281 Tel:(609)452-7007 Fax:(609)452-0066