WOODROW WILSON ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE INSTITUTE RUTGERS 1998

• STELLA modeling is a technology that can be used to better understand the relationships between components of any system. It will also enable us to project changes into the future, subject to changes today.
• In the study of the effect of climate change on river systems, the model will enable us to modify components, such as: precipitation, evaporation, groundwater, snowfall, temperature, etc. The model runs based on the input parameters and analyzes graphically the changes that any component has on river flow.
• The phenomenon of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere could lead to global warming. As the temperature globally increases, so too will the precipitation and evaporation rates. This potentially could result in fluctuating surface water flow into rivers and streams thus affecting our communities.

Application of STELLA modeling to River Systems

In this application, the model used was of the upper reaches of the Delaware River system. The components that we varied were temperature and precipitation. As the STELLA simulation ran it graphically plotted the results in a dynamic fashion. Below are the links to the simulation.

• Equations
• The model
• Graph analysis:
• Analysis of changes in river flow (red) compared to precipitation (blue) for 100 month period
• Effect of varying monthly runoff coefficient for lower , normal and higher than normal
• Effect of varying monthly precipitation for lower, normal and higher than normal

This STELLA model can be run with information from river systems located in the Water Resources module.

Additional information

STELLA commercial site

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Woodrow Wilson Leadership Program in Environmental Science lpt@www.woodrow.org
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