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WWNFF ESI'98 @ Rutgers University
El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Woodrow Wilson National Fellowship Foundation
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences:

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 
George W. Stickel Research Page

 
http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/gifs/sst.gif 
Experimental SST Anomaly Charts

Background

For background information and areas of interests check my web site, or contact me at gstickel@mindspring.com.

I chose to work with the El Nino group because of former work with remote sensing in the GLOBE Global Positioning System (GPS) work which produced the 1996 teacher resources for GLOBE GPS, and because of an interest in earth's energy systems. The research project was completed using data from Internet sources.

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Hypothesis: Atlanta and the state of Georgia rainfall levels and temperature highs, lows, and averages are moved to extremes by ENSO effects.

Procedure:  Internet data were collected (see Links to Data page) and compared with area climate data.

Climate Data:

Discussion and Conclusions:

The Southern Oscillation Index graphs 1947 to 1998, measures the El Nino & La Nina ocean pressures, and provides an index of intensities of each event. Those events, however, do not match precisely the NOAA El Nino events on their distribution maps. From those U.S. distribution maps, for El Nino events (1914, 1918, 1940, 1941, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, and 1994), Georgia has been impacted in the following ways:

Table 1: Precipitation and Temperature Changes During El Nino Months for Georgia

Months Precipitation Temperature
November-December Wet Somewhat warmer to warmer
January-March Normal in North Georgia, 
Somewhat wet in South Georgia
North Georgia cold, 
South and East central Georgia very cold
The following table shows temperature and precipitation for those months above, for the El Nino years on the distribution maps above. The source for these data is the Regional Climate Data, Georgia, for precipitation and temperature.

Table 2: Georgia Statewide Average Monthly Temperature and Precipitation for El Nino Years

 Year     Temperature Averages                        Precipitation Averages
Month November December January February March November December January February March
Period Normal 55.3 47.7 44.7 48.1 55.8 3.23 4.26 4.75 4.65 5.20
1914-15 53.6 45.1 45.8 48.8 47.8 4.73 4.35 5.74 3.88 2.53
1918-19 54.1 51.6 47.3 48.9 58.2 4.37 6.14 4.80 6.67 4.18
1940-41 54.8 51.4 47.5 43.6 50.2 3.68 3.99 1.69 2.21 4.52
1941-42 55.1 50.2 45.7 43.8 54.8 1.59 7.30 4.59 4.49 7.95
1957-58 56.4 48.1 41.4 40.8 52.2 6.70 2.85 3.45 4.50 5.12
1963-43 53.9 39.9 44.2 44.1 55.1 3.40 3.98 8.46 6.35 6.76
1965-66 56.5 47.6 41.8 47.0 53.0 1.91 2.53 6.29 6.92 5.03
1972-73 53.9 52.4 45.5 45.7 59.9 3.88 6.40 5.82 4.97 7.08
1982-83 57.2 53.3 42.6 47.6 54.1 3.68 6.20 4.44 5.77 7.11
1986-87 61.0 48.9 44.6 47.6 55.2 6.27 4.61 7.60 5.78 5.45
1987-88 57.0 51.2 46.2 52.3 55.2 2.96 2.54 5.15 4.11 3.46
1991-92 52.4 51.0 46.2 52.3 55.2 1.77 3.49 6.24 5.4 5.16
1994-95 59.2 51.0 46.5 47.9 58.9 2.92 3.37 4.52 6.23 3.25
These data generally affirm the data from Table 1. November has been cooler in earlier years, but warmer in later years. December is approximately the same; January slightly warmer; and February and March are considerably colder. Precipitation for November has only five drier years, but three are in later years. December is typically wetter as is January.  February is approximately the same, but March is drier.

Generally, the hypothesis is affirmed, but there are more data sets that need to be analyzed. The Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures need to be correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index, then compared with all the precipitation and temperature data for Georgia, before final conclusions can effectively drawn. 


Photochemical Smog

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Each teacher made a presentation to colleagues at the Institute, often sharing teaching materials, resources, or leading colleagues in activities. The following was made based upon research done at the Air Quality Laboratory at Georgia Institute of Technology.

Teacher Presentation
Photochemical Smog
July 10, 1998

Key words: ozone, photochemical smog, VOCs, NOx

Ozone

Ozone (O3) is a reactive gas that is found in the stratosphere, the second atmospheric layer above the earth, where the temperature rises with altitude. The reason for the temperature rise is because the ozone absorbs ultraviolet light, increasing the kinetic energy of the molecules, while protecting organisms on the earth from uv cell damage. Ozone also naturally occurs in the troposhere (the atmospheric level closest to the earth), as a result of gradient mixing from the stratosphere and from coronal and lightening discharges. However, ozone is found in urbane areas at levels four to twenty times these natural levels. In the troposphere ozone is as an irritant and the major contributor to photochemical smog—also called summer smog.
    Ozone is produced through free radical reactions (reactions involving atoms or molecules with an unpaired electron), simplistically written as:
    O + O2  O3

    With the first free radical oxygen being produced from the decomposition of the oxygen (O2) molecule or another type of molecule containing oxygen, by uv light or some other high energy activity, such as lightening or manufacturing.

    Ozone naturally decomposes, reforming oxygen molecules in an oxygen cycle, unless additional pollutants are present in the atmosphere. A chemical that can increase the productivity of ozone in the troposphere is NO, nitric oxide. Combustion produces NO from atmospheric nitrogen and oxygen:

  1. N2 + O2  2NO
  2. Nitric oxide will react with oxygen to form nitrogen peroxide, NO2, also called nitrogen dioxide. The ratio of NO and NO2 is referred to as NOx, because there is an equilibrium between the NO and NOx:

  3. 2NO + O2 2NO2
  4. The NO2 will also decompose with uv radiation (<430nm), forming a free radical oxygen, which can then, form ozone according to reaction [1], above. The decomposition is:

  5. NO2 + NO + O
  6. The NOx levels are typically low enough, however, that ozone is not formed. Further, the nitrogen oxides will also react with water molecules in the atmosphere, forming relatively short lived acids (HNO2, nitrous acid, and HNO3, nitric acid), both of which can precipitate as acid rains, within a few days. Thus, the NOx is not particularly problematic in clean air environments, with ozone production increasing in a linear fashion as NOx increases.

    However, if carbon compound pollutants are added to the atmosphere, the NOx production of ozone will increase in a nonlinear fashion, even growing exponentially. Those compounds (called collectively, volatile organic compounds or VOCs) include:

    There are a variety of free radical reactions in the atmosphere, but with the NOx and the VOCs—the ozone precursors—ozone production rates increase significantly according to the following relation:
  7. O + O2 + M O3 + M
  8. where M could be any number of atmospherically produced compounds.

    Depletion of the ozone and ozone precursors occur with the production of several water soluble compounds, including several acids (inorganic and organic), hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), and organic peroxides. These compounds dissolve in cloud droplets and precipitate out of the atmosphere.

    Atmospheric Ozone Patterns

    Ozone production follows a diurnal pattern, peaking with maximum uv radiation of the atmosphere between the local times of 12:00 N and 15:00, but extending as late as 21:00, depending upon temperatures and weather conditions. As the sun sets and temperatures drop, forming dew in the early morning hours, ozone levels drop to a minimum near 6:00. Ozone levels will increase, however, over the summer months, decreasing during the autumn months to a winter low. Diurnal variations are less prominent on mountain-top measuring sites, primarily because there is less opportunity for inversions, which trap ozone and its precursors in the lower troposphere.

    Ozone also correlates with concentrations of CO and SO2, which are not ozone precursors. The suggested rationale for such correlation is that emissions of CO and SO2 from industrial sources also emit non methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) and NOx, which are ozone precursors.

    Vegetation in both urban and rural regions is a significant producer of VOC’s and atmospheric nitric oxide (NO) is produced by fertilized, cultivated soils and lightening. However, all atmospheric ozone precursors increase significantly from motorized vehicles, from combustion processes, and from industrialization. Thus, industrialized regions can suffer from a decided increase in tropospheric ozone production.

    Conclusions

    Besides the irritation to nasal passages or eyes, there are agricultural and economic concerns for reducing ozone production. Adams, Hamilton, and McCarl have suggested that $1.7 billion could be saved by reducing tropospheric ozone by 25%. Besides medical savings by such reductions, agricultural productivity will increase. It has been found that corn yields have been decidedly decreased, if the corn is exposed during the growing season to ozone levels of 80 ppbv for eight hour periods.

    Reduction in NOx has been found to decrease ozone levels, which can be accomplished by improved combustion techniques. Even reduction of highway grades has been found to diminish precursor emissions from trucks, for example.

    Resources

    Selected Internet Sites

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