INTRODUCTION
The work that was done with the other Woodrow Wilson Fellows at the
Cook College campus of Rutgers University, The State University of New
Jersey, had to do with the topic of the effects of El Nino and Global Change.
As my group discussed our roles in this segment of the ESI 98R program,
it was decided to have each member of the five person team study and report
on the local effects of El Nino, La Nina, and the Southern Oscillation
relevant to their particular interest associated with their home states.
I had an interest in ocean storms and the eastern coast of the United States.
Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin; the number of occurrences, and the direct
impact on the landfalls of this region seem to correlate with events of
El Nino and La Nina weather patterns. This then led to my hypothesis.
HYPOTHESIS:
La Nina increases hurricane numbers and strength, while El Nino decreases
hurricane numbers and strength in the Atlantic Basin.
DEFINITIONS:
There has been a confusing range of uses for the terms El Niño,
La Niña and ENSO by both the scientific community and the general
public. Originally, the term El Niño (in reference to the Little
Boy or Christ child) denoted a warm southward flowing ocean current that
occurred every year around Christmas time off the west coast of Peru and
Ecuador. The term was later restricted to unusually strong warming that
disrupted local fish and bird populations every few years. However, as
a result of the frequent association of South American coastal temperature
anomalies with inter annual basin scale equatorial warm events, El
Niño has also become synonymous with larger scale, climatically
significant, warm events. There is not, however, unanimity in the use of
the term El Niño. The tendency in the scientific community though
is to refer interchangeably to El Niño, ENSO warm event, or the
warm phase of ENSO as those times of warm eastern and central equatorial
Pacific SST anomalies. Conversely, the terms La Niña( the Little
Girl), ENSO cold event, or cold phase of ENSO are used interchangeably
to describe those times of cold eastern and central equatorial Pacific
SST anomalies. La Nina is sometimes referred to as
"El Viejo" or "anti-El Nino".
The terms episode and event are used to denote a year when El Nino and/or
La Nina occur. Warm and cold episodes generally last into the winter and
spring of the following year.
A El Nino/La Nina comparison chart can be found at The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) web
site: El Nino Theme
Page
PROCEDURE:
The collection of data is the crucial part of the
analysis I wish to undertake in proving or disproving my hypothesis. I
have recognized that the true proof of my hypothesis would be that hurricane
forecasts (predictions) must be realized im those episode years. Both the
number of hurricanes and their severity must occur specifically to the
type of weather conditions for that "year"; whether it be an El Nino, La
Nina, or Neutral episode/event. Therefore this analysis can and will be
ongoing as tracking data becomes available; with computer technology being
incorporated and utilized in the classroom setting, and understanding that
condition of global change will be identified, which are linked to the
Atlantic Basin region ( includes: Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and
tropical Atlantic Ocean) (note: The image as seen on the first page is
continuously updated for analysis).
A recent set of episode years are found under
List of El Nino & La Nina Years at the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's web site El
Nino Theme Page. These particular years involve 1902 to 1997. Interestingly
when global warming is considered as a cause for more intensity of weather
"episodes," more historical episode data can be found in the Scientific
Correspondence magazine article by Richard H. Grove (e-mail
grove@coombs.anu.edu.au) which tends to disprove that modern theory
that global warming is responsible. Mr. Grove discusses South Asia archival
evidence in his article Global Impact of the 1789-93 El Nino as
necessary for all other comparisons of ENSO events due to global warming.
Therefore historical and recent storm analysis for the Atlantic Basin must
be conducted.
For the more recent hurricane years in the Atlantic Basin, there is
a study of the years 1949 to 1993 which shows there were; eleven (11) El
Nino years, eleven (11) La Nina years, and twenty two (22) neutral years.
A comparison chart of these years between El Nino and Neutral years (see
Figure 1), and the numbers of hurricanes (Table 1) are available
at COAPS : The
effects of El Nino on U.S. Land falling Hurricanes. The initial indication
seen in Table 1 records a higher number of La Nina year hurricanes then
is seen for El Nino year hurricanes. A 26% difference, but still substantially
less during neutral year hurricanes for the same length of time of eleven
years. The probability of two or more hurricanes striking the U.S. in a
neutral year is 46% or 2.2 times more likely that the El Nino or La Nina
year.
PREDICTIONS:
The latest predictions for the 1998 hurricane season (June 1 - November
30) from the Caribbean area is that in the possible La Nina episode predicted
for 1998 there are 6 hurricanes forecasted, as compared to the 3 actual
hurricanes seen in the El Nino year of 1997 (see the Caribbean
Weather Center.)
CONCLUSION:
It could be stated then, that El Nino reduced hurricane activity, where
as La Nina increased that activity in the Atlantic, by analyzing the comparison
data between 1949 and 1993. It is frequently quoted that El Nino does in
fact reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The Caribbean Weather Center
documentation helps us see that for the El Nino year of 1997. The La Nina
episode is yet to produce that conclusive hurricane "quote" for the 1998
episode.
The information yet to be found and considered is hurricane statistics
for the correlation of severity of storms for El Nino versus La Nina episodes.
The additional data to be found and studied will be on the comparison of
hurricane overall wind speeds, impact and penetration of landfalls in the
Atlantic Basin.
For further information/feedback, contact me at: MtnLion45@aol.com
or DPMontel@juno.com
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