Coastal areas of the Atlantic and Gulf have experienced rapid growth within the past twenty-five years. This means that for many residents of these areas the scope of the damage possible from a catastrophic storms is not a reality. They have not experienced the effects of a nor'easter or hurricane which has caused extensive property damage and disruption of life-style in their community.
With growing populations in coastal areas, local municipalities have come to understand that even with increased warning time before a storm strikes, evacuation can be a serious issue. How much time is needed to move the population to safety? Can the roads in the area support the projected traffic load? What emergency support is needed to ensure safety of the population should there not be sufficient warning time to make evacuation possible? What other crisis management plans need to be in place to deal with potential coastal hazards, such as if a tanker is grounded by a storm? Will fire, police and ambulance departments be able to function if a severe storm damages roads and utilities in the community?
When considering these issues, should a community limit its population, curtail its growth, and err on the cautious side? Or is concern about these issues unfounded and not appropriate for a community to worry about in this day and age?
Communities are looking at situations where "the
policy challenge lies in striking the appropriate balance between coastal
development and hazard mitigation, between economic growth and public safety"
(Godschalk, 1989, p. 5)
Natural
disasters represent the intersection of two sets: nature and population.
As the
population continues to grow, so does the area of intersection, leading
to costlier and
deadlier disasters.
To help communities analyze risk and prepare an action plan to deal with potential catastrophic hazards, FEMA has prepared FIRM maps which predict areas that would be flooded by different water-level rises. Upland areas can easily be flooded by rising water as shown in this illustration.
To help communities analyze risk and prepare an action plan to deal
with potential catastrophic hazards, a natural hazard management model
has been developed. .
(Godschalk, 1989, p. 18) This model has
four parts:
Actions taken by communities and states varies depending on the local priorities. In some areas, housing and businesses that are centered in beach communities provide tax revenue that is needed by the larger community. It would be very difficult to limit construction in such localities, even if a natural hazard risk existed there. In other places, communities may have the discretion to build in more than one location and then choose to build where there is less probability of impact from a natural hazard.
Community attitudes are influenced by several things, including how the local media expresses concern about potential risks. For example, if a storm is predicted to impact an area with extreme force, and by luck the wind turns and the storm goes elsewhere, the community may come to believe that there is not as much risk as "the alarmists" claim, and that mitigation actions are not needed. However, if a community has recently experienced the effects of a severe storm it is far more likely to create a hazard mitigation plan in order to be ready for the next big storm.
Some actions that communities consider or include when preparing a mitigation action plan for coastal storm hazards include:
In a survey of 403 coastal communities conducted in 1984 by David Godschalk and his associates (Godschalk, 1989, pp. 206-234, appendix), the impediments that appear to stand in the way of implementing and enforcing a mitigation management plan are:
| Event | Annual Mean
Loss of Life (period) |
Annual Mean
Current $ Loss (period) |
Recent extreme
event, $ loss, deaths (date) |
| floods | 96 ('86-'95) | $2.4B ('84-'93) | $20B ('93)
156 ('76) |
| hurricanes | 20 ('86-'95) | $6.2B ('89-'95) | $30B ('92)
256 ('69) |
| winter storms | 47 ('88-'95) | >$1B (est.) | $6B ('93)
200+ ('93) |
| tornadoes | 44 ('85-'95) | $2.9B ('91-'94) | $3.8B ('93)
94 ('85) |
| extreme heat | 384 ('79-'92) | ? | >$15B ('80)
522 ('95) |
| extreme cold | 770 ('68-'85) | ? | >$30B ('76-'77)
? |
| lightning | 175 ('40-'81) | >$1B (est.) | ? |
| hail | - | $2.3B (est.) | $650M ('90) |
| Annual Averages | >1500 | >$15.8B |
Conclusion:
When all of the factors regarding catastrophic storms
are considered, the complex issue of how to prepare for these storms becomes
evident. A balance needs to be found between the geographic/meterologic
realities of a community's location and the political/economic factors
that allow the community to thrive. Storms will continue to happen. People
will learn how to manage their coastlines in preparation for these occasional
storms so that they can minimize the negative effects of these natural
hazards.